All in on high percentage favorites!
Here is the "morning" card. If these hit we are looking at a very successful week of GRINDING!
The first hockey bet of 2021 hangs on a knife edge. The swing will stall on 5 for a clear winner. That is what I beseech the gambling gods to bless.
The morning action is a sweep, all bets hit. Only modest returns, say 10% ROI for the morning work.
This evening's action is a bit more swingy and by such swingy-ness is being wagered with much smaller stakes.
For this morning I am parlaying two HEAVY favorites. Combined the juice is still -370! Why, why do this? Because it is the only thing on the board I have any information on. The books are so slimy they bury the odds you bought each leg of your parlay at. This means like this morning I want to get a sense on how my picks stand by line movement is shot unless I wrote down the juice on each when I made the bet. Currently my handicapping method is looking at ESPN's prediction tracker and look for teams 90%+ to bet on in some fashion. Usually a gimpy 2-leg parlay. So far it has paid the bills but can I keep it up to Superbowl Weekend?
The snooker bet yesterday was awesome. Maguire has a history of taking the first and second frame against his opponent even though he loses to Selby more often than not. At +130 it is a text book auto bet. I am still lucky to hit on that beauty of a snag.
The rest of the afternoon looks like more of the same. Sifting through thee NCAAM daily schedule and look for "lock" favorites to parlay for some modicum of revenue. I'll get into percentage of bankroll and adjusting bet size over the weekend. Lets go Bonnies!
I'm taking KC to win the Superbowl at +200. It was +250 when I started considering making my Superbowl bet this early. The 50 point drop in value made me roll my eyes, but perhaps I can take consolation the world thinks I'm right! If it hangs on at this price for another week and a half I will double it up ($50 from $25).
+135 Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins Under 5.5 (Inc OT) GOALS U/O 5.5 (INC OT) SMU Mustangs vs Temple Owls SMU Mustangs MATCH WINNER (INC OT) WON
This my best bet looking ahead. Leveraging a long-shot under for 135 compared to the 110 currently available. So if it does hit I'm getting paid 25% more than everyone else. In today's gambling climate this is about as good as it gets. Look ahead for something interesting and then increase its odds by winning some hard core favorites along the way. Yes you do need to hit all the bets to collect but to get better odds than you should on a contest, this is about the only way to do it.
So with a week into it I've turned $250 into $401. No need to change strategies this short into it. My current bet strategy is NCAA favorites parlayed with something else. The something else is the inflated price on something to make it worth the risk. After that I scrape for any information to back my claim before trigger time. Like I said, very thin opportunities on the ground and they will be gone fast if they show.
Spring Training 2023 is underway and this means in 3-4 weeks I can start fading the Rockies again! Maybe even back them each series? If the...
